118
FXUS63 KDMX 232337
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
537 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more day of above normal highs in the 40s to 50s Sunday
  before much colder temperatures make a return Monday, with
  even colder temperatures incoming to end the week/next
  weekend (highs in the 20s!).

- Low chances, (0.1" Further northwest, some soundings
do indicate ice introduction which could mean some flurries late
Sunday night, though other soundings keep drier conditions
through the mid- levels. With the overall trends of saturation
and lowering cloud bases, the more widespread impact may
actually just be fog. Given the varying trends in model guidance
and degrees of saturation, confidence in any one precipitation
scenario remains lower and will have to continue to monitor the
situation through the next 24 hours. Outside of the fog, the
good news in all of this is impacts should be fairly minimal
with the low amounts of QPF.

As we look ahead to the upcoming week, multiple waves drift through
the overarching zonal upper flow through mid week, the most notable
on Wednesday into Thursday. Although the GFS continues to sink the
greater precipitation chances to the south of the area, the Euro has
actually started coming back northward in the latest runs, similar
to what it was doing several days ago. Timing and location
differences continue to make it difficult to settle on any one
scenario and its associated impacts, but we will continue to monitor
trends and provide additional updates in the coming days. &&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Lingering stratus this morning has largely dissipated across
eastern areas with early morning fog having also cleared as well
leaving VFR conditions across the area. Additional clouds have
already started moving into the area, but in the shorter term
will be largely high to mid-level clouds and thus remaining as
VFR. Some lower clouds begin to filter into the area early
Sunday bringing the eventual return of some MVFR ceilings to
the area, but probabilities increase to above 50% chances after
the end of this TAF period so will address further in future
issuances. Winds will largely be out of the southeast to south
through the period and near to less than 10 knots.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR conditions will persist overnight and much of Sunday with
continued high cloud cover at most sites. KMCW will see
restrictions first with decreasing ceilings across northern
Iowa by mid to late morning on Sunday. MVFR ceilings will slowly
extend south, reaching KFOD/KALO by the end of the period
tomorrow evening and beyond the current period at KDSM/KOTM.
Winds remain out of the southeast through the period with a
shift to northerly winds Sunday evening. The wind shift and
further ceiling reductions will be addressed in future updates.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KCM
AVIATION...Hagenhoff

NWS DMX Office Area Forecast Discussion