000
FXUS63 KDMX 192052
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
252 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Sunday/
Issued at 252 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

Tonight...Very subtle wave passing through eastern Iowa currently
has spread some stratus into the eastern third to half of the state.
Weak forcing and meager moisture associated with this feature was
responsible for some flurries or snow showers.  This should exit
this evening then later tonight through Monday a stronger shortwave
will pass through the region.  This should spread more stratus over
a wider are of the CWA along with more flurries or snow showers.
Yesterday models showed an area of lift mainly south and west of
Iowa but today that area of lift does come into southern Iowa. For
this reason I put slight chance PoPs in the forecast as we will
likely see more than flurries when that passes.  Moisture is less
than impressive so we would only see light amounts is anything. The
stratus will mess with temps tonight but given the cold temps
already and some wind...albeit lighter than last night...temps
mainly across central and west areas will likely dip to -20 or so
wind chills overnight so another headline is necessary for wind
chills.  The advisory will end a little earlier as the bitter cold
will not be with us as long in the morning.

Tuesday and Tuesday evening an upper ridge is still forecast to
shift across the state with the surface high pushing into the
eastern U.S. Temps will moderate so we will be warmer than what we
have seen lately.

Tuesday night and Wednesday the upper wave to begin to impact the
region through late week shifts a little further east, allowing
warmer and more moist air to push into the Upper Midwest a little
faster than previously forecast.  This will bring snow changing to a
wintry mix late Tuesday night into Wednesday then back to snow
Wednesday night.  Models are still all over the place so while
general trends can be seen, forecasting amounts is still in the low
confidence category.  Today the GFS is lighter with QFP and the Euro
is higher.

This initial shot pushes east Wednesday night into Thursday as the
upper trough digs into the region developing a closed upper low and
surface low.  The models place the surface low anywhere from Kansas
to Texas so confidence in precip and ptype remains low at this point
but we will be unsettled with periods of precip through Friday. By
the weekend the system should pass east or southeast of the area and
we will be seeing slightly cooler temps for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon/
Issued at 1217 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

MVFR with local IFR cigs expected across northern/eastern TAF`s
today. We may see a break in the lower cigs this evening but a
shortwave dropping down from MN will bring low cigs back to all
TAF locations along with flurries. As noted from today, it didn`t
take much to drop vsbys to between 2 and 3SM in -sn and this will
be the case on Monday as well...especially far south but mainly
after the valid period of the forecast.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday
for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>026-033>037-044>049-057>060.

Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for
IAZ070>073-081>083-092>094.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...FAB
AVIATION...FAB

NWS DMX Office Area Forecast Discussion