FXUS63 KDMX 242053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
253 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday/
Issued at 253 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

All concerns in this period will be near term associated with the
approaching system and associated trough and weak frontal
passage. A potent short wave/PV anomaly continues to push from
the eastern Dakotas into MN. The lift out ahead isn`t phased well
with 1-3km thermodynamic QG forcing just exiting the south and
east with sharp subsidence behind. Higher aloft the more
kinematically driving forcing immediately ahead of the short wave
is moving through the Upper MS Valley. With subsidence and dry air
below 3km there isn`t much hope of precip reaching the ground
this far south, so nothing more than sprinkles far north.

Winds will be another concern, but very short lived. Steep low
level lapse rates and mixing have developed behind the trough and
ahead of a surface pressure rise center over northeast NE at 19z.
Wind gusts in these areas, include into our far western
forecast area, have reached 35-45kts and are expected to dampen
slightly before diminishing even further approaching sunset. Thus
30-40kt gusts would mainly affect the northwest third of the
forecast area through 4-5pm. The winds will subside by early
evening with mostly clear skies through the night as further
drying and subsidence settles in.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday night through Friday/
Issued at 253 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

The two primary concerns through next week will be temp and
precip trends with the system around Monday, and then precip
trends into midweek. The period will begin with upper level
ridging advancing into the Plains with return flow Sun into Mon.
Warm advection Sun will be moisture starved with no precip. The
following system Monday should be fairly similar to today`s. The
thermal ridge axis through Iowa will boost temps well above normal
again Mon, although not to the same extent as today. Record highs
are higher as well. The trough will came through during the night
and the thermodynamic and kinematic forcing will be deep and
coupled, but equally moisture deficient. Thus the passage of this
system will be dry as well.

The next concern will be a closed low advancing through the Plains
into Wed. Models have finally come into better run to run
agreement with this feature and suggest a track somewhere from MO
into southern IA. This coupled shot of warm/theta-e advection and
divergence/DPVA will bring chances for rain or showers around Wed.
Models are in good agreement to end the period with some form of
a long wave trough developing to the west and moving through the
central CONUS. This will be with a considerably dry airmass too so
the forecast remains dry through the end of the next work week
with lowering heights dropping temps back to normal.


.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon/
Issued at 1143 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

The primary aviation concern will be wind gusts behind the trough
passage and wind shift this afternoon. Winds are expected to go
from SW to NW which will be followed by a short period of gusts to
30 kts in spots, with best mixing through the heart of IA mainly
affecting KFOD and KDSM. The gusts should quickly subside into
sunset with high confidence in VFR conditions through the entire






NWS DMX Office Area Forecast Discussion