000
FXUS63 KDMX 121115
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
615 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming into this weekend with breezy conditions today and
  Saturday leading to somewhat elevated fire weather conditions.

- Temperatures in the 70s to low 80s Saturday/Sunday!

- Thunderstorm chances return Monday afternoon through Tuesday.
  Some strong to severe storms possible, but details to continue
  to be refined.

- Active pattern remains through the rest of the work week with
  temperatures trending cooler to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Today:

Clouds continue to decrease in the east early this morning with
clear skies ongoing across the rest of the area. Winds remain
breezy, especially central to east, where an increased pressure
gradient remains between the low pressure, which continues to
move off to the east/northeast today through the eastern Great
Lakes into the northeast U.S., and a high pressure which will
drift into the region today through tonight. As a result,
another breezy day is in store with gusts of 20-35 mph, the
highest gusts in the east. Winds will relax into tonight as the
high pressure moves in but before that, another somewhat
elevated fire weather day will also be in place given the breezy
winds and relative humidity values that fall towards the 25-35%
range. Yesterday`s rainfall and continued green up will help
mitigate, but caution is certainly advised for those with plans
to burn. Temperatures today will be warmer than yesterday and in
the 60s.

Saturday/Sunday:

Upper ridging builds into the area through the weekend as a quasi-
omega block develops on Saturday between the low moving off the east
coast and another moving on shore in the west. Warm air advection
surges into the area as mid-level flow turns out of the southwest
sending temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday.
Breezy winds will return by Saturday afternoon leading to another
day of elevated fire weather, especially north where gusts may near
30 mph. Sunday will be similar, albeit with lighter winds and
temperatures although near, may be slightly cooler than Saturday. A
cool front moves through the area bringing a wind shift as winds
become out of the north to northeast cutting off our warm air
advection.

Monday and Beyond:

Attention then turns to the strong system moving through the
southern U.S. to start the work week which will bring the return of
rain and thunderstorms to the forecast Monday night through Tuesday.
The system has slowed down compared to this time yesterday but
although confidence in rain/storms occurring is fairly high, the
details of our severe threat remain more uncertain and will continue
to be fine-tuned in the next couple days as confidence increases in
the location of the warm front coupled with overall timing of the
system and associated parameter space. The main takeaway at this
point is to continue to monitor the forecast for updates! Beyond
Tuesday, an active forecast pattern continues through much of the
rest of the work week though models diverge towards the end of the
week lessening confidence in the rain/storm forecast. Have
maintained the NBM PoPs to end the week at this point but expect
current forecast to be overdone with regards to space and time.
Cooler temperatures do look to return with highs back in the 50s by
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions expected to continue through the TAF period. Only
aviation concern today is the breezy winds which will gradually
decrease into the afternoon/evening as a high pressure nudges
into the area. Highest gusts will be in the east (mainly KMCW,
KALO, & KOTM).

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KCM
AVIATION...KCM

NWS DMX Office Area Forecast Discussion